Balancing System and Manual Forecasts for Ideal Hotel Budgeting

“A solid budget starts with clear goals; what are you trying to achieve? Then, it’s about mapping out the actions to get there, and building the budget around those priorities.

For example a goal could be to shift business from groups to transient to profit from higher ADRs while risking losing occupancy. Actions could involve a price repositioning, investing in group quotation tools and processes and so on. The budget will show the potential results reflecting this strategy.

Relying on system forecasts alone? Risky, especially if you have a high share of non-transient business, as most systems struggle with accuracy in that area. Always cross-check the numbers manually to spot gaps and ensure your budget is actually aligned with reality, not just an algorithm’s best guess.”

“For me, it’s all about finding the right balance – I rely on both systems and a manual forecast. Tools like RMS and market intelligence platforms are great for analysing past data and trends, but I also maintain a manual forecast for our weekly revenue meetings, aligning with sales and digital marketing insights.

Systems help centralise data and provide an overview, but manual input is key for factors they can’t predict, like a potential buyout or a major group booking.

The approach also depends on the hotel or business type; music events, for example, can drive unexpected room demand. Other external factors like weather changes, economic shifts, or even local events need to be considered too.

The budget is monitored weekly, ensuring alignment across teams in revenue meetings. The ideal process blends data-driven automation with human insight – leveraging systems for accuracy and scalability while keeping flexibility and accountability at the core.”

“The ideal budgeting process is a combination of system learning and human intuition. A revenue manager’s ability to understand the impact of a recent renovation, a local event, or a competitor that is experiencing staffing issues in comparison to the system prediction is unmatched by any algorithm.

Without a doubt, I would advocate for a hybrid approach, allowing the system to take the lead using decisions based on data and applying manual overrides afterwards. Following COVID, city-wide events and larger groups have returned; this enforces side-by-side forecasting to enable the system to adapt.

Forecasting and budgeting are ultimately a combination of art and science. Technology should serve as your compass, and local knowledge as your map.”

“Unfortunately, as precise as an RMS may be, it cannot fully understand all market dynamics, so I believe that the budget requires a compromise between human and machine.

For example, simply the fact that certain events fall in one month rather than another can completely change the demand for a destination, and so too would the impact of a new competitor in the area, or the acquisition/loss of a piece of business. Similarly, a renovation that adds new rooms or a new product positioning are further examples that would require consideration and a change in strategy.

As I always say, the machine must be fed by humans in order to function and collaborate correctly; it’s a continuous partnership.”

“Revenue management systems themselves state that their demand forecasts should not be used for financial planning. Therefore, as of today, it is still necessary to manually adjust revenue planning in the lodging sector.”